Food Flation

Food Flation

In 2022, the average rate of inflation in Canada was 6.80%, a 3.41% increase from the previous year. Rising prices have made it difficult for people to afford necessities such as electricity and groceries, as well as guilty pleasures such as McDonald’s or KFC.

But how has inflation affected the prices of our favourite fast food restaurants? Our slots experts at Spin Genie have investigated the increasing prices of fast food menu items. We’ve looked at the prices of fast food chains in 2014 and compared them to now to reveal the restaurants with the biggest increase in price, the menu items that have increased the most, and what could be the most expensive items in 30 years.

Fast food chains with the biggest change in prices

04-Fast-food-chains-with-the-biggest-change-in-prices

Rank

Fast food chain

Earliest data available

Average menu item price difference

1

McDonald's

January 24, 2014

138.48%

2

Panera Bread

March 15, 2015

68.15%

3

Wendy's

June 24, 2015

50.80%

4

KFC

March 16, 2015

34.29%

5

Arby's

March 16, 2015

30.15%

6

Taco Bell

February 9, 2014

23.20%

7

Carl's Jr.

March 16, 2015

18.01%

8

Cheesecake Factory

March 16, 2015

10.05%

9

Subway

January 25, 2014

7.38%

10

Chipotle

March 16, 2015

6.06%

1. McDonald’s - 138.48% average menu item increase

McDonald’s is the fast food chain with the highest inflation, with average menu items increasing by almost 140%. Cookies increased in price the most, rising by 400% since 2014 when they cost just 55 cents (31 pence). A McDonald’s sausage gravy and biscuit had the lowest inflation, rising by 14.87% in 11 years. 

McDonald’s has denied raising its prices beyond inflation rates, claiming that the increase is due to the increased cost of ingredients, labour, and rent. 

2. Panera Bread - 68.15% average menu item increase

In second place is Panera Bread, with an average inflation rate of 68.15%. Two items on Panera Bread’s menu didn’t increase in price: a bowl of soup and soup in a sourdough bread bowl. 

Aside from the two soup-based items, the menu item with the lowest price increase was the Mediterranean veggie sandwich, which increased by 42% since 2015. The menu item with the most significant increase was mac and cheese, rising by 112%. 

3. Wendy’s - 50.80% average menu item increase

Wendy’s concludes our top three with an average menu item increase of over 50%. The menu item increasing the most were the four-piece spicy or crispy chicken nuggets, which rose by 172% in 10 years. In 2015, four chicken nuggets would cost you $1.39 (78 pence). In 2024, the same item is now $3.79 (£2.13). 

The only three items on Wendy’s menu that didn’t increase were a small hot coffee and the small and large Frosty Shakes. Despite their rising prices, Wendy’s’ Vice President announced in 2024 that their restaurant will not be implementing surge pricing, a practice of increasing prices when demand is at its highest.

05-Fast-food-chains-with-the-biggest-change-in-prices-table

Fast food chains with the lowest change in prices

06-Fast-food-chains-with-the-lowest-change-in-prices

Rank

Fast food chain

Earliest data available (to 2014)

Average menu item price difference

1

Applebee's

March 16, 2015

-1.23%

2

Tapioca Express

June 18, 2017

-1.17%

3

P.F. Changs

November 12, 2017

-0.43%

4

Shake Shack

July 31, 2017

0.00%

4

Starbucks

March 8, 2014

0.00%

4

Whataburger

July 1, 2015

0.00%

8

Rubio's

June 7, 2017

0.13%

9

Little Caesars

March 16, 2015

0.43%

10

IHOP

March 16, 2015

2.61%

1. Applebee’s: -1.23% average menu item difference

The fast food chain with the lowest inflation rate is Applebee’s, with the average menu item decreasing by 1.23%. All of the items on Applebee’s menu have decreased since 2015. 

The extras on Applebee’s menu decreased the most, with adding cheese to your burger decreasing by more than 10%. Adding bacon or applewood smoked bacon also reduced in price by almost 8%. 

2. Tapioca Express: -1.17% average menu item difference

Tapioca Express takes second place, with the average menu item decreasing by 1.17%. Although many of Tapioca Express’s prices remain unchanged, there have been a few increases and decreases. 

The items with the most considerable price decreases were pudding, grass jelly, and coffee, which were all reduced by over 80%. The menu item that increased the most was the T.E. Crispy Chicken, which increased by over 50%. 

3. P.F. Changs: 0.43% average menu item difference

Finalising our top three is P.F. Changs, with the average menu item increasing by 0.43%. Similar to Tapioca Express, several items on the P.F. Changs' menu have remained the same since 2017. However, of the items that did increase, vegetable fried rice and Chang’s chicken lettuce wraps increased the most, rising by 21.05%. Crispy honey shrimp decreased the most, almost halving in price compared to 2017.

07-Fast-food-chains-with-the-lowest-change-in-prices

The fast food menu items with the highest annual growth

08-Highest-annual-growth

Rank

Item

Fast food chain

Price difference

Compound annual growth rate

2024 price (CAD $)

2024 price (GBP £)

1

1 Cookie

McDonald's

410.26%

15.97%

$2.81

£1.58

2

McDouble

McDonald's

259.00%

12.32%

$5.06

£2.85

2

McChicken

McDonald's

259.00%

12.32%

$5.06

£2.85

4

3 Cookies

McDonald's

249.00%

12.03%

$4.92

£2.78

5

Vanilla Cone

McDonald's

219.00%

11.12%

$4.50

£2.54

6

Double Cheeseburger

McDonald's

209.30%

10.81%

$5.62

£3.17

7

Hash Browns

McDonald's

199.00%

10.47%

$4.22

£2.38

7

Sausage Biscuit

McDonald's

199.00%

10.47%

$4.22

£2.38

7

Sausage Burrito

McDonald's

199.00%

10.47%

$4.22

£2.38

7

Sausage McMuffin

McDonald's

199.00%

10.47%

$4.22

£2.38

1. 1 Cookie, McDonald’s - 410.26% price increase since 2014

The most inflated menu item was a McDonald’s cookie, which increased in price by 410%. A single cookie at McDonald’s has been rising at 15% per year, the highest compound annual growth rate of any menu item. 

2. McChicken/McDouble, McDonald’s - 259% price increase since 2014

The McChicken and the McDouble share second place, rising by 259% since 2014. These two burgers' compound annual growth rate was 12.32%, the second-highest of any menu items on our list. 

Although McDonald’s doesn’t do surge pricing, the CEO, Chris Kempczinski, claimed that the rising prices were due to a reduction in footfall, with people making less than $45,000 (£25,000) per year visiting the franchise less often. 

3. 3 Cookies, McDonald's - 249% price increase since 2014

Three cookies from McDonald’s had the third-highest price difference since 2014, rising by almost 250%. They grew at an annual rate of 12.03%, the third-highest compound annual growth rate on our list of menu items.

09-Highest-annual-growth-table

The most expensive fast food items in 30 years' time

Taking the average growth rate in prices since 2014, we’ve found what fast food items could cost in 30 years if they continue on this trajectory.

10-Expensive-fast-food

Rank

Item

Fast food chain

Compound annual growth rate

Price in 30 years (CAD $)

Price in 30 years (GBP £)

1

1 Cookie

McDonald's

15.97%

$238.95

£134.79

2

McChicken

McDonald's

12.32%

$165.24

£93.21

2

McDouble

McDonald's

12.32%

$165.24

£93.21

4

Sausage Egg Biscuit (Combo)

McDonald's

8.45%

$152.30

£85.91

5

3 Cookies

McDonald's

12.03%

$148.73

£83.89

6

Steak Egg Cheese Bagel (Combo)

McDonald's

7.70%

$147.53

£83.22

7

Mac & Cheese

Panera Bread

7.82%

$142.70

£80.49

8

Bacon Egg Cheese Bagel (Combo)

McDonald's

7.54%

$124.72

£70.35

9

Double Cheeseburger

McDonald's

10.81%

$122.32

£69.00

10

Egg McMuffin (Combo)

McDonald's

7.66%

$116.15

£65.52

1. 1 Cookie, McDonald’s - $238.95 (£134.79) estimated price in 30 years

If previous price raises are anything to go by, fast food is set to get a lot pricier. McDonald’s could have the most expensive item in 30 years, with the cost of a single cookie expected to rise to almost $240 (£135). The price of a cookie from McDonald's is $2.81 (£1.58), a 410% rise from the 2014 price of 55 cents (31 pence). 

2. McChicken/McDouble, McDonald’s - $165.24 (£93.21) estimated price in 30 years

Sharing second place are the McChicken and the McDouble, estimated to be $165 (£93.21) in 30 years. In 2014, the McChicken and the McDouble were $1.41 (80 pence); in 11 years, they’ve risen to $5.06 (£2.85), a 259% increase. Both the McChicken and the McDouble have been growing at 12.32% each year.   

3. 3 Cookies, McDonald’s - $148.73 (£85.91) estimated price in 30 years

Three cookies from McDonald’s complete our top three, with prices estimated to rise to almost $150 (£83.89). Back in 2014, three cookies would have cost around $1.41 (80 pence). However, in 11 years, this has risen to nearly $5 (£2.78), an increase of 249%.

The fast food chains with the most expensive burgers in 30 years

11-Burgers-expensive-fast-food

Rank

Item

Fast food chain

Compound annual growth rate

2024 price (CAD $)

2024 price (GBP £)

Price in 30 years (CAD $)

Price in 30 years (GBP £)

1

Jr. Cheeseburger

Wendy's

9.66%

$3.50

£1.97

$55.76

£31.38

2

Cheeseburger

McDonald's

7.94%

$4.22

£2.38

$41.73

£23.54

3

Classic Burger

Cheesecake Factory

1.53%

$19.67

£11.09

$30.97

£17.47

4

Classic Burger

Applebee's

-0.07%

$11.26

£6.35

$11.01

£6.21

5

1/3 lb. Cheeseburger

Carl's JR.

1.48%

$6.61

£3.73

$10.27

£5.79

6

Cheeseburger

Shake Shack

0.00%

$6.06

£3.42

$6.06

£3.42

7

Justaburger

Whataburger

0.00%

$4.93

£2.78

$4.93

£2.78

1. Jr. Cheeseburger, Wendy’s - $55.76 (£31.38) cost of burger in 30 years

In 30 years, Wendy’s could have the most expensive burger, with its Jr. Cheeseburger costing an estimated $55.76 (£31.38). The Jr. Cheeseburger has been increasing by 9.66% each year, costing $1.39 (78 pence) in 2015 and rising to $3.50 (£1.97) in 2024, a total rise of 151%.  

2. Cheeseburger, McDonalds - $41.73 (£23.54) cost of burger in 30 years

The McDonald’s cheeseburger could be the second most expensive burger in 30 years, costing an estimated $41.73 (£23.54). This same cheeseburger would have cost you just $1.82 (£1.03)  in 2014, which increased to $4.22 (£2.38) in 2024. The McDonald’s cheeseburger has been rising at an annual rate of 8%, the second-highest rate of any burger. 

McDonald’s has changed how they make their burgers, including cooking fewer patties at a time so they’re served warmer and adding cheese to burgers at room temperature to improve how much it melts. 

3. Classic Burger, Cheesecake Factory - $30.97 (£17.47) cost of burger in 30 years

The Cheesecake Factory’s Classic Burger completes our top three, estimated to cost $31 (£17) in 30 years time. The classic burger was the most expensive in 2024, costing almost $20 (£11) a 16% rise compared to the price in 2015, which was just under $17 (£10). 

The classic burger, also known as the Chop House hamburger, falls under the Cheesecake’s Factory ‘Glamburgers’ section, named by the CEO and founder who felt that hamburgers didn’t do these menu items justice. 

Methodology

We used Hack The Menu and Fast Food Menu Price to find the prices of menu items across fast food restaurants. 

We then used Way Back Machine to find the prices of these in 2014, or the closest year to this as possible.

We then calculated the compound annual growth rate and the price difference between 2014 (or the closest year) and 2024. We then used the compound annual growth rate to work out the estimated price in 30 years time. 

Prices are in CAD and GBP and were converted on 22.11.2024 using XE

Data is accurate as of 22.11.2024.

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